(Business in Cameroon) – The Cameroonian government has launched the midterm review of the National Development Strategy to 2035 (SND30). Adopted in 2020, the strategy provided for a review in 2025 “to capitalize on lessons learned and optimize implementation of the SND30 over the 2025–2030 period.”
According to the review summary, “with regard to the growth objective, the SND30 had planned a gradual increase in growth to 8.5% by 2025.” The outcome falls well short of that path. While the government notes that “growth remained positive over the 2020–2025 period,” it acknowledges that it is “below the ambitions of the strategy.”
Far from the 8.5% target for 2025, “growth rates over the 2020–2025 period were respectively: 0.3%; 3.3%; 3.7%; 3.2%; 3.5%; and 3.8%,” the review states. In effect, with 10 years to the 2035 horizon, growth is hovering around 3%.
Weak growth, poverty still high
This pace remains too low to drive improvements in other socio-economic indicators. The government had set the objective of “reducing the monetary poverty rate to 25% by 2030 while significantly lowering inequalities.”
However, based on the fifth Cameroon Household Survey (ECAM 5), published in March 2024, “the poverty rate in 2022, defined as the share of people living below the poverty line (CFA813 per day), stood at 37.7%,” according to the midterm SND30 review.
The document notes that “this level of poverty corresponds to around 10.1 million people nationwide,” out of an estimated population of about 29 million. The gap with the 25% target for 2030 highlights the difficulty of translating even positive growth into a rapid reduction in poverty.
External accounts and monetary indicators show mixed results
On the external front, the SND30 projected an improvement in the current account deficit, expected to narrow from -3.4% of GDP in 2020 to -2.6% in 2025. In practice, the deficit “widened through 2023, reaching -5.2% of GDP.”
The government is more optimistic looking ahead, with the current account deficit expected at -2.8% of GDP by the end of 2024, bringing it closer to the target, though still above it.
Not all indicators are negative. The government points out that “the overall deficit was kept under control at -1.4%.” In addition, “the money supply slightly exceeded projections, reaching 27.7% of GDP,” while credit to the economy remains below target, at 17.5% compared with an initial projection of 23.2%. This reflects relatively ample liquidity overall, but weaker-than-expected financing of the real economy.
External shocks, internal constraints, and risks to emergence
To explain the underperformance, the government cites a series of external shocks, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the Israel–Palestine conflict. Domestically, persistent instability in three of the country’s 10 regions is also identified as a drag on SND30 implementation and economic attractiveness.
The executive nonetheless claims a “proactive” approach to implementing the strategy and attributes part of the gap to the “interdependent nature of economies, which limits the impact of domestic efforts, particularly in terms of growth and incomes.”
Authorities remain concerned about the pace of growth. They note that “the growth shortfall, averaging around three points per year, represents a high risk of undermining the ambition of emergence.” Cameroon aims to become an emerging country by 2035, which the government associates with average annual growth of 10%. With a decade to go, growth stuck near 3% underscores the scale of the adjustment required to meet the SND30 trajectory.
Ludovic Amara
