(Business in Cameroon) – The government is proposing to cut its 2025 oil revenue forecast by 93.3 billion CFA francs, a 12.7 percent reduction. This revision appears in the finance bill drafted by the Ministry of Finance to amend the 2025 State budget, which parliament initially approved in November 2024. The new projection for oil and natural gas sales, along with corporate tax revenues from oil companies, is 641.5 billion CFA francs, down from the original 734.8 billion CFA francs.
This decision stems from recent shifts in both international and domestic oil and gas markets, according to the Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document 2026–2028. While corporate tax revenues are expected to stabilize in the revised budget, royalties from the National Hydrocarbons Corporation (SNH), the state-owned entity marketing Cameroon’s crude oil, are projected to drop by 74.7 billion CFA francs. Specifically, these royalties are now expected to be 495.5 billion CFA francs, a decrease from the initially projected 570.2 billion CFA francs.
The government attributes this adjustment to a combination of factors. First, both oil and gas production are declining. New government forecasts set Cameroon’s 2025 oil production at 19.81 million barrels, down from 20.71 million barrels in the initial finance law. Gas production is also expected to decrease, from 92 billion standard cubic feet (Scf) to 79.2 billion Scf.
Less Pronounced Dependence on Oil
Second, global oil prices have fallen. The Ministry of Finance document, which will guide the upcoming Budget Orientation Debate at the National Assembly, indicates that while the initial finance law assumed a crude oil price of $72.84 per barrel, the global price has since dropped to $66.94.
Finally, the rising exchange rate of the dollar against the CFA franc also contributes to the downward revision of Cameroon’s 2025 oil revenue projections. Government data shows the rate, initially set at 597.69 CFA francs per dollar, has increased to 609.12 CFA francs per dollar.
Although oil revenues remain crucial for the state’s operations, their share of Cameroon’s overall budget is steadily declining. In both the original and revised finance laws, oil revenues account for less than 10 percent of the total budget envelope, a significant drop from 25 percent in the past. This trend reflects Cameroon’s gradual reduction in its reliance on crude oil exploitation.
Brice R. Mbodiam
