(Business in Cameroon) – Cameroon’s Ministry of Finance has shared optimistic forecasts for inflation, predicting a gradual decline that will bring it closer to the 3% threshold set by the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). According to the medium-term economic and budgetary programming document for 2025-2027, “inflation is expected to decelerate from 7.0% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025, reaching a level near CEMAC’s 3% threshold by 2026-2027.”
In 2023, inflation hit 7.4%, up from 6.3% in 2022. This rise was mainly driven by surging food prices (+10.9%) and higher transport costs (+15%) due to fuel price hikes and trade disruptions. For 2024, the Ministry of Finance projects that “inflation will remain high due to an increase in fuel prices at the pump.” This price adjustment, implemented by the government on February 3, 2024, has significantly contributed to inflationary pressures, especially with transport costs rising, which in turn affects market prices for goods.
Data released by Cameroon’s National Institute of Statistics (INS) in September 2024 revealed a 0.4% rise in household consumer prices in August 2024 compared to the previous month. This was mainly due to a 1.1% increase in food prices. Compared to August 2023, annual inflation rose by 3.8%, with food prices up by 4.2% and transport costs by 10.7%. However, there has been a downward trend in inflation since the fourth quarter of 2023, with an average rate of 5.1% over the past 12 months, according to the statistics agency. Inflation rates vary across regions, ranging from 4.2% to 7.1%, still well above CEMAC’s 3% tolerance level. These projections come as the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) continues to maintain a cautious monetary policy amid inflationary pressures. In September 2024, its monetary policy committee kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive time. BEAC forecasts that inflation in the CEMAC region will drop to 4.2% this year and return to the 3% threshold in 2025, although with variations across member countries. Cameroon, which accounts for 52% of CEMAC’s total consumption, expects inflation to align with the regional standard by 2026.
