Key Messages
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue until January 2025 in conflict-affected areas of the Far North region, particularly in the Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Mayo-Sava divisions. After January, outcomes will likely deteriorate to Crisis levels (IPC Phase 3) through May due to an atypically rapid depletion of food stocks from the October harvest, high prices, and reduced purchasing power. Households most affected by conflict and flooding are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout this scenario period. Those with severely reduced coping capacity will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.Households facing flood-related displacements and severe crop and livestock damage, particularly in the Mayo Danay and Diamaré divisions, are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through the end of the year.
- Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the Northwest and Southwest regions until May 2025. The number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in these regions is expected to rise, reaching its peak during the lean season between March and May. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist for a small proportion of poor households, especially those in the most insecure, remote areas who have faced repeated displacements.
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected until May 2025 in areas with large refugee populations, especially in Mbéré in Adamawa and Kadey and Lom-et-Djerem in the East region. Very poor households, especially refugee households, will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Host and refugee households ‘ access to basic food and non-food needs remains limited due to above-average staple food prices and heightened competition for income-earning opportunities.
- FEWS NET estimates that 1.5-2.0 million people in the country, mainly refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and returnees, will require emergency food assistance between October 2024 and May 2025. Annual assistance needs are anticipated to remain high and peak around May, coinciding with the peak of the lean season in the country’s southern zone.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 15, 2024.
