(Business in Cameroon) – With a career spanning more than four decades, Emmanuel Noubissie Ngankam has worked across multiple areas of economic policy and development. His professional journey has taken him from economic journalism and advisory roles with employers’ associations to representing the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, and later serving as the World Bank’s Resident Representative in Algeria.
He eventually moved into independent consulting, focusing his expertise on economic analysis. This diverse path, from analyzing national policy to representing a major international financial institution, gives him a rare depth of insight. In this interview, he reflects on economic growth trends from 2018 to 2025, the evolution of poverty, debt and public finance management, and the critical issues of governance and sustainability.
Business in Cameroon: How do you assess Cameroon’s economic growth over the last decade (2014-2024)? What have been the main drivers, and to what extent has this growth helped reduce poverty in the country?
Emmanuel Noubissie Ngankam: Overall, Cameroon’s economic growth over the past decade has been modest, even disappointing, given the country’s potential and the government’s own targets. The 5.3% growth peak reached in 2014 has never been matched since. In 2020, growth nearly came to a standstill at 0.7% due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, it has hovered around 3%, reaching 3.5% in 2024, well below the 8.1% target set in the National Development Strategy (SND30).
This weak performance stems from a combination of external shocks and domestic challenges, particularly the security crises in the Anglophone North West and South West regions, as well as in the far north. These long-running conflicts have driven up military spending, diverting resources from other priorities such as infrastructure and human capital.
This weak performance stems from a combination of external shocks and domestic challenges, particularly the security crises in the Anglophone North West and South West regions, as well as in the far north. These long-running conflicts have driven up military spending, diverting resources from other priorities such as infrastructure and human capital. Beyond these challenges, the economy continues to struggle with deep structural weaknesses that limit its ability to reach its full potential.
As a result, per capita income has stagnated, and in some cases declined, worsening poverty levels in both rural and urban areas. According to the latest CEMAC economic update published by the World Bank in June 2025, about 12.6 million Cameroonians, roughly 42.5% of the population, live on less than $3.65 (2,200 XAF) a day. Cameroon has the means to unlock its full potential and change this trajectory, but that requires more inclusive and sustained growth.
What have been the key trends in inflation, public finances (fiscal deficit, debt), and the external sector (current account, exports) in Cameroon over the past decade? How have these developments affected the country’s attractiveness to investors?
The main macroeconomic indicators, particularly the ones you mentioned, have moved in broadly similar directions. Inflation, for example, stayed close to the regional benchmark of 3% for several years before peaking at 7.4% in 2023, largely reflecting global price pressures. It then eased to 4.5% in 2024, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
Turning to public finances, Cameroon continues to grapple with both a fiscal deficit and a current account deficit, the so-called twin deficits, which weigh heavily on the broader economy. In 2024, the current account deficit stood at 3.4% of GDP and the fiscal deficit at 1.5%. These figures point to imbalances in the external sector and a budget shortfall financed through borrowing, the build-up of arrears, or both.
Turning to public finances, Cameroon continues to grapple with both a fiscal deficit and a current account deficit, the so-called twin deficits, which weigh heavily on the broader economy
If these twin deficits persist, Cameroon could be forced to adopt new structural adjustment measures. This would inevitably weaken the country’s attractiveness to investors, as persistent macroeconomic instability suggests the state is struggling to meet its obligations without external assistance. The result is often lower domestic demand and greater dependence on IMF financing for balance-of-payments support.
An analysis of how Cameroon’s national wealth changed between 1995 and 2020 reveals a paradox, nominal GDP doubled, yet national wealth per capita fell and natural capital declined. How do you explain this situation, and what does it mean for the sustainability of development?
This apparent paradox can, in fact, be explained. The World Bank’s 2025 report on Cameroon provides a clear analysis of the issue. Although total national wealth increased over the period, wealth per capita fell by about 11% between 1995 and 2020 because of rapid population growth, a pattern also observed in several other countries in the region. Cameroon’s population more than doubled during this time, from 13 million to 28 million.
As a result, the country’s wealth per capita declined even as GDP continued to rise. By contrast, most Sub-Saharan and lower middle-income countries recorded gains in both GDP and overall wealth. This shows that Cameroon’s economic growth has not been matched by sustainable wealth accumulation.
The World Bank also notes that changes in real wealth per capita depend on the balance between asset growth and population trends. If the value of productive assets does not grow faster than the population, per capita wealth inevitably declines. That’s why sound management of natural resources, targeted investments in infrastructure and human capital, and deeper economic diversification are essential to ensure that both the country’s asset base and its GDP per capita grow in tandem.
Given the importance of natural capital, particularly Cameroon’s forests, how do you assess the current pace of forest degradation and its economic impact? What strategies would you suggest to balance economic growth with environmental protection?
Cameroon’s natural capital is considerable, although its non-renewable resources, notably oil, are steadily being depleted. The solid minerals sector, however, appears to be gaining new momentum.
When it comes to forest resources, their management remains highly opaque, and their contribution to GDP, estimated at around 4%, is well below potential. That said, contrary to popular belief, economic growth and environmental protection are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they can reinforce each other.
What are, in your view, the main governance and rule-of-law challenges that hinder the effective mobilization of capital and economic performance in Cameroon? How do these issues affect the investment climate?
This question goes to the heart of institutional quality, which can be understood through three dimensions: rules and constraints, governance tools, and the balance of power. The quality of institutions is fundamental to economic progress, and Cameroon is no exception. If institutions functioned effectively across these areas, the country could make substantial progress.
Take the justice system, for example. It’s hard to overstate the impact of its paralysis, given that the Supreme Council of the Judiciary hasn’t met in five years. An economy dominated by extractive institutions, where rules are inconsistently applied or serve narrow interests, cannot inspire investor confidence.
To grasp how deeply institutional quality shapes economic outcomes, I’d recommend Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, two leading economists whose research has profoundly influenced thinking on how institutions determine a nation’s prosperity.
Drawing on your experience at GICAM and the World Bank, how do you assess the evolution of access to finance for Cameroonian businesses and the relationship between the private sector and public authorities? What improvements would you recommend?
Access to finance remains one of the main constraints on private sector development in Cameroon. The financial system is dominated by commercial banks, which, aside from their caution, face structural constraints in financing long-term investments. Their limited capital base and short-term liabilities make it difficult to provide long-term funding.
The financial market, by contrast, is still underdeveloped. On the equity segment of the Central African Securities Exchange (BVMAC), only six companies are listed. The good news is that investment funds and asset managers are gradually emerging, offering alternative sources of financing. It’s a new financial culture that will take time to become firmly established.
The good news is that investment funds and asset managers are gradually emerging, offering alternative sources of financing. It’s a new financial culture that will take time to become firmly established.
As for relations between the private sector and the government, unfortunately, they remain sluggish. Since the dissolution of the Cameroon Business Forum in 2021, efforts have been sporadic and uncoordinated. It’s both urgent and essential to establish a permanent, structured platform for dialogue. The absence of such a framework continues to weigh heavily on Cameroon’s economic development.
Beyond the traditional oil sector, which areas do you see as having the greatest potential to diversify Cameroon’s economy while preserving its natural capital? How can this transition be optimized?
One of the SND30’s stated goals is to transform Cameroon into a newly industrialized economy. To achieve that, the government targets average annual growth of 8% in the non-oil industrial sector between 2020 and 2030. In reality, growth has hovered around 2.5% in recent years (2.3% in 2023 and 2.4% in 2024). This gap shows just how much remains to be done to steer Cameroon’s economy back toward diversification, with manufacturing as its main driver.
This gap shows just how much remains to be done to steer Cameroon’s economy back toward diversification, with manufacturing as its main driver.
The SND30 clearly defines its strategic framework around nine key industrial subsectors: energy; agro-industry; digital; forestry and wood; textiles, apparel, and leather; mining, metallurgy, and steel; hydrocarbons, petrochemicals, and refining; chemicals and pharmaceuticals; and construction and technical services. As I often say, the SND30 was well-designed but has struggled in its implementation.
In the AfCFTA and CEMAC integration context, how can Cameroon leverage its geographical position and assets to become an investment hub for Central Africa?
The AfCFTA represents a major opportunity for African economies, particularly in today’s global environment. However, its implementation continues to face several structural challenges, notably inadequate infrastructure and connectivity, currency and exchange-rate constraints, and barriers to mobility and trade.
For Cameroon, the key challenge is still to diversify its economy by strengthening the manufacturing sector. Its strategic position could make it, as outlined in the SND30, the region’s “Switcher” (energy supplier), “Nourisher” (agro-industrial hub), and “Equipment Manufacturer” (producer of capital goods such as furniture) for both the ECCAS region and Nigeria. Cameroon has a potential market of more than 350 million consumers right on its doorstep.
What are your medium-term macroeconomic prospects for Cameroon? What are the main risks, and what policy options do you recommend to accelerate sustainable and inclusive development?
Cameroon’s economic potential is considerable, but short- and medium-term prospects are clouded by persistent uncertainties and risks. In the immediate term, the main source of uncertainty is the presidential election scheduled for October 12, 2025. Even in the event of a smooth re-election for President Biya, uncertainty would remain, as the status quo could prevail over the course correction the country urgently needs.
Other risks include the lack of an IMF program and declining external financial support, continued instability in the power sector, ongoing security challenges, and mounting fiscal pressures, evident in the government’s almost monthly recourse to the regional public debt market. These vulnerabilities are compounded by a global environment marked by shrinking development finance, volatile commodity prices, and disruptions to trade and investment.
That said, it is both urgent and essential to: (i) overhaul the business environment; (ii) invest heavily in productivity and competitiveness drivers, particularly infrastructure, energy, and human capital; (iii) reform the telecommunications and digital sectors; (iv) undertake a thorough review of the SND30, whose implementation has been hindered by outdated assumptions and goals; and (v) resolve the ongoing security crisis in the North West and South West regions. All of these measures depend on stronger, better-functioning institutions.
It is both urgent and essential to: overhaul the business environment; invest heavily in productivity and competitiveness drivers, particularly infrastructure, energy, and human capital
To reach its target of becoming an emerging economy by 2035, meaning entry into the upper-middle-income bracket, Cameroon must at least triple its Gross National Income per capita, currently around $1,680. It’s an ambitious but achievable goal, one that Cameroon has the resources to meet.
