The International Monetary Fund has projected a gradual improvement in Cameroon’s economic outlook, supported by the emergence of large-scale mining activity and incremental gains in electricity supply. The assessment was issued at the conclusion of the Fund’s 2026 Article IV Consultation mission, which took place in Yaoundé from 29 January to 12 February 2026 under the leadership of Christine Dieterich. The mission reported that Cameroon’s economy had shown resilience in recent years despite successive external shocks, but growth remained moderate.
Real GDP growth slowed to an estimated 3.1 per cent in 2025, compared with 3.5 per cent in 2024, reflecting disruptions linked to post-election unrest that affected trade, services and investment toward the end of the year. Growth is projected to recover to 3.3 per cent in 2026 and to exceed 4 per cent from 2028 as electricity constraints ease and mining production expands. According to the IMF, medium-term growth could reach 4.6 per cent by 2031, supported by diversification into mining.
A central element of this outlook is the start of large-scale bauxite exports. The Minim-Martap bauxite project in the Adamawa Region, operated by Canyon Resources through its subsidiary Camalco Cameroon, holds confirmed ore reserves of 144 million tonnes with a grade of 51.2 per cent aluminium oxide. Canyon Resources has secured a US$140 million credit facility from AFG Bank Cameroon and raised approximately A$205 million in equity financing to fund the first stage of development.
Mining operations began in early 2026, with a first trial shipment of bauxite targeted for the third quarter of the year, according to company disclosures. The project is located near a rail corridor linking the interior to the Port of Douala. Rail operator CAMRAIL is upgrading sections of the line to accommodate mineral transport, and Canyon has ordered 22 locomotives from Chinese manufacturer CRRC Ziyang, with deliveries scheduled through 2026.
The company is also negotiating to increase its shareholding in CAMRAIL from 9 per cent to about 35 per cent. A feasibility study for a proposed alumina refinery, intended to process ore prior to export, is reported to be approximately 45 per cent complete, with an investment decision targeted for the third quarter of 2026. In parallel, the Mbalam iron ore project in southern Cameroon is preparing for initial production. During its first phase, iron ore will be transported by truck to the Port of Kribi pending completion of dedicated rail infrastructure.
In the energy sector, expanded generation capacity is expected to reduce supply constraints, although the IMF noted that the growth outlook depends on the timely completion of transmission upgrades. ENEO Cameroon, the country’s principal electricity distribution and generation company now under state control, has expanded generation capacity and reinforced transmission links, while additional private operators are commissioning new facilities.
The 420-megawatt Nachtigal hydroelectric plant, developed with support from the World Bank Group, the International Finance Corporation and the African Development Bank, has increased national generation capacity by roughly 30 per cent. As of January 2025, six of its seven turbines were operational. Cameroon has also joined the Mission 300 initiative of the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank Group, which aims to connect 300 million Africans to electricity by 2030. I
n September 2025, the government endorsed a National Energy Compact at the Bloomberg Philanthropies Global Forum in New York, outlining commitments to expand renewable energy, promote universal access and support infrastructure investment and policy reform. Solar photovoltaic capacity is being developed with a target of 250 megawatts, including expansions at existing plants in Maroua and Guider. Increased electricity reliability is expected to support industrial activity and meet the energy requirements of mining operations.
The IMF reported that fiscal performance weakened in 2025. The overall budget deficit widened from approximately 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2024 to about 2 per cent of GDP in 2025. The non-oil primary balance deteriorated to around 2.6 per cent of GDP compared with a budget target of 1.4 per cent, reflecting lower-than-expected non-oil revenue and higher current spending. The current account deficit increased to an estimated 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2025, up from 3.3 per cent in 2024, partly due to declining oil exports. Debt sustainability analysis continues to classify Cameroon at high overall risk of debt distress. The 2026 budget targets a fiscal deficit of 1.7 per cent of GDP, consistent with the convergence criteria of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community.
The IMF mission outlined a reform agenda focused on improving access to finance, strengthening public investment planning and execution, expanding concessional financing, and increasing domestic non-oil revenue mobilisation. It also called for the operationalisation of a Single Treasury Account, the advancement of regional treasury market reforms, and stronger public financial management, particularly with regard to commitment controls and the limitation of off-budget spending.
The Fund identified risks to the outlook, including delays in rail and port infrastructure, elevated logistics costs during the trucking phase of iron ore exports, volatility in global commodity prices, constraints in electricity transmission and distribution, pressures on regional reserves and liquidity within CEMAC, higher global interest rates, reduced international aid flows, and ongoing security and climate-related challenges.
Mercy Fosoh
