(Business in Cameroon) – Global cocoa production is expected to post another surplus in the 2025-26 season, extending the trend that began in 2024-25 after three years of deficits, according to commodity market analysts. Data from fr.tradingeconomics.com points to a surplus of about 186,000 tons over global demand, up from 142,000 tons the previous season, driven by a production boost in Ecuador. The Latin American country could overtake Ghana as the world’s second-largest producer this season.
The projected surplus is linked to weakening global demand, with some bean processors scaling back activity and supply chain difficulties in certain producing countries. This outlook could weigh on cocoa prices throughout the season. On September 24, 2025, global cocoa prices plunged by more than 40%.
Specialized platforms reported that prices fell below $7,000 a ton, down from a peak of nearly $13,000 in 2024. According to xtb.com, prices are expected to “decline gradually in the short and medium term,” potentially stabilizing at $3,000 a ton in a worst-case scenario.
Wide gap between forecasts and reality
These developments cast doubt on Cameroon’s upbeat projections for its cocoa sector. The government had announced farmgate prices for the 2025-26 season in the range of CFA3,200–5,400 per kilogram, following a record CFA6,300/kg paid to farmers in 2023-24.
Yet market conditions suggest a much weaker start. According to the Cocoa and Coffee Board’s monitoring system (SIF), beans delivered to Douala port were trading at CFA2,800–3,000/kg on September 25, implying farmgate prices below CFA2,800.
A farmer interviewed in Lékié, Cameroon’s main producing area, reported a maximum of CFA2,400/kg since the beginning of the 2025-26 season. This shows a gap of CFA800/kg from the government’s minimum projection of CFA3,200, and CFA3,000/kg from the expected peak of CFA5,400.
