(Business in Cameroon) – Cameroon’s government predicts continued declines in oil revenues through 2027, even as oil production is set to rebound. Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that oil revenues should reach CFA563.1 billion in 2026, down 12.2% from the previous year. The same trend is expected to persist into 2027.
The Ministry attributes this drop to two main factors: a reduction in royalties collected on oil and gas sales by the National Hydrocarbons Corporation (SNH), and lower corporate taxes paid by oil companies.
“In fact, royalties will decrease from 495.5 billion in 2025 to 423.8 billion in 2026, driven by lower prices and exchange rates, while oil sector corporate tax will drop from 146 billion in 2025 to 139.3 billion in 2026. In the medium term, oil revenues are projected to average 559 billion between 2027 and 2028, representing a slight 0.7% decrease compared to 2026,” explained the Ministry of Finance in its Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document 2026–2028, presented during July’s Budget Orientation Debate at the National Assembly.
Ironically, this revenue drop comes as the government expects a recovery in oil output after a dip in 2025. Production should fall to 19.8 million barrels in 2025 (down from 21.3 million in 2024) but rise to 20.8 million barrels in 2026, and 22.1 million barrels in 2027, based on Ministry forecasts. However, the average oil price per barrel is expected to slide from $79.1 to just $62.7 through the period.
Natural gas production tells a different story. After peaking at 79.2 billion Scf in 2025, output is projected to decrease to 65 billion in 2026 and drop sharply to just 39 billion Scf in 2027, according to officials.
Although revenues from oil still enable the state to fulfill its major commitments, their significance is shrinking. Oil income now makes up less than 10% of Cameroon’s state budget, compared to 25% in earlier years. This decline not only marks a turning point in Cameroon’s reliance on oil but also highlights ongoing efforts to diversify the economy.
Brice R. Mbodiam
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